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以日本现在的实力，真能打赢俄罗斯吗？俄结束战斗只需一天,洞察军事,原创以日本现在的实力，真能打赢俄罗斯吗？俄结束战斗只需一天_我的网站

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一 | 日本和俄罗斯，一个是经济科技强国，一个是军事核大国。 Last week, the predominantly conservative US Supreme Court overruled the precedent established by the Roe v. Wade and decided that states may regulate the practice of abortion. The Roe v. Wade decision upheld pregnant women’s right to seek an abortion without government restrictions. A decision in the 1992 case of Planned Parenthood v. Casey largely upheld the Roe ruling.,Effect on Midterms,In November, US citizens will go to the polls in what will be the first midterm election of the Joe Biden administration as well as a referendum of sorts on the current US president's performance. The Republicans have been projected to win back the House of Representatives and the Senate as well, as the public has been increasingly frustrated by the issues such as inflation, crime, education and jobs. The recent ruling, however, could potentially give the democrats a shot in the arm by generating excitement among their voters.,"It will certainly galvanize the Democrats' base, for sure, it will help them to raise campaign funds and it may - perhaps - make some races more difficult for Republicans, especially in the suburbs among women voters," Robert Singh, a professor of politics at Birkbeck, University of London, said, adding that most voters will still be focused on other issues and he still expects the Republicans to win both houses of the Congress.,This sentiment was echoed by Ziad Munson, a sociology professor and the chair of the department of sociology and anthropology at Lehigh University in Pennsylvania, who also warned that the effect of the decision can be overstated.,"A consistent finding in political science over the last several decades is that the abortion issue, while a potent ideological symbol, seldom is a key policy issue for voters when they cast their votes," Munson explained.,Andrew Wroe, a senior lecturer in American politics at the University of Kent, agreed as well that the issue should help the Democrats, citing the effectiveness of the Republican use of cultural issues for rallying their base.,"The Democratic Party has been less successful in prosecuting the Culture Wars, but this is its great opportunity. Whether it will use it well is a different question, however," Wroe suggested.,At the same time, Christopher Kaczor, the chair of the philosophy department at Loyola Marymount University, is doubtful about the abortion issue having an impact on the US political landscape and helping Democrats to excite their voters.,"I expect that the very small minority of people for whom abortion is the key issue, on both sides, will be energized by this decision, but for most people other political and economic issues will remain more important," Kaczor stated.,New Wave of Protests?,The Supreme Court's decision has triggered a strong reaction on both sides of the issue in the United States, with hundreds of protesters, pro-life and pro-choice, gathering outside the Supreme Court last week following the decision. After the ruling, protests broke out in various US cities, showing a possibility of a nationwide backlash.,"People are angry, distraught, and ready to mobilise. It is difficult to say precisely how long the protests will persist, but it is likely to be some considerable time, given the magnitude of the policy change and the direct and indirect effects it will have on millions of people's lives," Wroe said.,Meanwhile, other experts expressed skepticism regarding the possibility of nationwide protests, including Munson, who drew attention to the fact that "the conservative majority tested for this possibility when they agreed not to stay the implementation of the Texas S.B. 8 law [also known as the Texas Heartbeat Act that bans abortion after detection of an unborn child's heartbeat] earlier this year.","Allowing that law to go into effect was the Court's political trial balloon, and it showed that widespread outrage quickly quieted down after just a few days. The outrage following the formal overturning of Roe v. Wade will last longer, but it is not likely to lead to large-scale consequential protest activity," the sociologist said.,Man Charged With Attempted Murder of LAPD Officers Amid Roe v Wade Protests26 June, 14:51 GMT,Who Judges the Justices?,Over the years, the role of courts in the US social and political life has greatly increased, with the Supreme Court becoming the final arbiter on many hot-button issues, such as same-sex marriage, gun control and abortion. This has been a prominent talking point among conservatives, who have been claiming that this practice undermines the country's constitutional principles, while liberals have been appealing to the notion of the courts standing up for human rights as well as drawing attention to the conservative movement's efforts to train and promote judges who share its principles.,"Both liberals and conservatives have always been supportive of judicial activism, they just want the judiciary to be activist in promoting the issues or outcomes that their side prefers. This despite the fact that conservatives have used 'judicial activism' as a talking point for some time," Munson pointed out.,Kaczor, for his part, drew a distinction between the original Roe decision and the Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization, insisting that the latter actually corrects a case of judicial activism.,"The Dobbs decision is not accurately portrayed as a case of judicial activism, but rather as the reversal of judicial activism. It was Roe that established a constitutional right for abortion that had no basis in the text, history, or structure of the constitution. The decision of Dobbs undoes this judicial activism," he stated.,Nevertheless, the ruling by the current Supreme Court, which has three justices picked up by former President Donald Trump from a list compiled by the conservative legal organization Federalist Society, is likely to have the Democrats sour on the Supreme Court.,"Democrats are increasingly likely to start talking about illegitimate policy making by the Supreme Court. They will start to complain about judicial activism. But, as noted above, they can use these arguments to mobilize their base and to argue for urgency of electing more Democrats to the Senate, which of course must ratify presidential appointments to the Court," Wroe said, adding that the Democrats can also "begin to legitimately argue that the Senate has an in-built Republican advantage that needs to be addressed via constitutional change.",According to Singh, any Democratic nominee for the 2024 presidential race will face the pressure to commit to enlarging and reforming the Supreme Court.,"Whether that happens, though, is another matter. I doubt the Democrats will have sufficient seats in the Senate to overcome a GOP filibuster of court reform proposals. But the fact that the conservatives number six now on the Court sets up an on-going problem for Democrats, and more conflict to come," Singh concluded.。这两家要是真打起来，结果会怎么样？俄罗斯方面有人曾放过话，说结束战斗只需要一天。

二 | 俄罗斯真那么厉害吗，是不是在吹牛呢？其实不是，俄军真有这个实力。目前日本自卫队总兵力25.5万人，装备精良，海上自卫队和航空自卫队的装备水平放，在亚洲甚至世界都是一流水漂。尤其是海上力量，日本有大量现代化驱逐舰、护卫舰，还有出云级准航母和AIP潜艇，反潜和防空能力极强。航空方面，日本在逐步换装隐身战机F-35，机队规模不小，一旦全部交付，数量超百架。单看常规装备的质量，日本超过大多国家。但日本有个短板：日本自卫队是一支“专守防卫”的力量。

三 | 战后宪法限制它不能拥有进攻性战略武器，没有远程轰炸机，没有弹道导弹，更没有核武器。日本最强的海上力量，核心任务是保护海上交通线和配合美军反潜，不是远征打击。而俄罗斯常规军力这些年退化明显，尤其是海军，苏联时代留下的底子老化严重，新舰补充缓慢。但俄罗斯手里有两样东西，让日本望尘莫及，那就是核武器和战略纵深。俄罗斯的核武库跟美国一个量级，战略火箭军手里握着上千枚核弹头，从洲际导弹到潜射导弹再到战略轰炸机，三位一体的核打击能力齐备。日本没有核武器，也基本没有反导拦截洲际导弹的能力。一旦冲突升级到核层面，日本连还手的本钱都没有。这就是俄方说“一天结束”的底气所在。